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Antifragile is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and The Bed of Procrustes.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.
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Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.�
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In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In Antifragile, Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.
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Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call “efficient” not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear.
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Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.
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Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb’s message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.
Praise for Antifragile
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“Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining.”—The Economist
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“A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives.”—Newsweek
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“Revelatory . . . [Taleb] pulls the reader along with the logic of a Socrates.”—Chicago Tribune
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“Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides . . . I will have to read it again. And again.”—Matt Ridley, The Wall Street Journal
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“Trenchant and persuasive . . . Taleb’s insatiable polymathic curiosity knows no bounds. . . . You finish the book feeling braver and uplifted.”—New Statesman
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“Antifragility isn’t just sound economic and political doctrine. It’s also the key to a good life.”—Fortune
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“At once thought-provoking and brilliant.”—Los Angeles Times
- Sales Rank: #81301 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Random House
- Published on: 2012-11-27
- Released on: 2012-11-27
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.80" h x 1.50" w x 6.80" l, 1.91 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 544 pages
Features
- Used Book in Good Condition
Amazon.com Review
Amazon Best Books of the Month, December 2012: Fragile things break under stress. But, according to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, there's an entire class of other things that don't simply resist stress but actually grow, strengthen, or otherwise gain from unforeseen and otherwise unwelcome stimuli. Taleb sees degrees of antifragility everywhere, from fasting, mythology, and urban planning to economic, technological, cultural, and biological systems. The wealth of radical thinking in this book astounds; the glossary alone offered more thought-provoking ideas than any other nonfiction book I read this year. That said, Antifragile is far from flawless. As comical as Taleb's rough handling of his favorite targets can be--academics, economists, and tourists, to name a few--his argumentative style boasts gaping holes, non sequiturs aplenty, and at times an almost willfully repugnant tone. Some readers will find Taleb's brashness off-putting; others will embrace it as a charismatic component of the ideas themselves. Either way, no one will finish this book unchanged. --Jason Kirk
From Booklist
Judging by his anecdotes, Taleb interacts with the economic masters of the universe as he jets from New York to London or attends business-politics confabs in Davos, Switzerland. Anything but awed by them, Taleb regards them as charlatans, not as credible experts. Such skepticism toward elites, which imbued Taleb’s The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2007), continues in this work, which grapples with a concept Taleb coins as “antifragile.” Not readily reducible to a definition (Taleb takes the whole book to develop the idea), suffice to say here that antifragile’s opposites—economic, political, or medical systems that are vulnerable to sudden collapse—tend to be managed by highly educated people who think they know how systems work. But they don’t, avers Taleb. Their confidence in control is illusory; their actions harm rather than help. In contrast, Taleb views decentralized systems—the entrepreneurial business rather than the bureaucratized corporation, the local rather than the central government—as more adaptable to systemic stresses. Emphatic in his style and convictions, Taleb grabs readers given to musing how the world works. --Gilbert Taylor
Review
“Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining.”—The Economist
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“A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives.”—Newsweek
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“Revelatory . . . [Taleb] pulls the reader along with the logic of a Socrates.”—Chicago Tribune
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“Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides . . . I will have to read it again. And again.”—Matt Ridley, The Wall Street Journal
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“Trenchant and persuasive . . . Taleb’s insatiable polymathic curiosity knows no bounds. . . . You finish the book feeling braver and uplifted.”—New Statesman
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“Antifragility isn’t just sound economic and political doctrine. It’s also the key to a good life.”—Fortune
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“At once thought-provoking and brilliant.”—Los Angeles Times
“[Taleb] writes as if he were the illegitimate spawn of David Hume and Rev. Bayes, with some DNA mixed in from Norbert Weiner and Laurence Sterne. . . . Taleb is writing original stuff—not only within the management space but for readers of any literature—and . . . you will learn more about more things from this book and be challenged in more ways than by any other book you have read this year. Trust me on this.”—Harvard Business Review
“By far my favorite book among several good ones published in 2012. In addition to being an enjoyable and interesting read, Taleb’s new book advances general understanding of how different systems operate, the great variation in how they respond to unthinkables, and how to make them more adaptable and agile. His systemic insights extend very well to company-specific operational issues—from ensuring that mistakes provide a learning process to the importance of ensuring sufficient transparency to the myriad of specific risk issues.”—Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, Bloomberg
Most helpful customer reviews
691 of 735 people found the following review helpful.
As always, an imperfect, infuriating but intriguing book
By Alfred LEUNG
1 Summary
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1.1 Introduction
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Taleb conveniently quotes one of his friend's summary of this book: "Everything gains or loses from volatility. Fragility is what loses from volatility and uncertainty."
I think the point is better expressed by rephrasing: "Antifragility is what gains from volatility and uncertainty, up to a point. And being antifragile is a good thing."
Well, that's pretty much summarizes this 500-pages-long book. The rest is an accumulation of more or less relevant topics, delivered in Taleb's trademarked seering, holier-than-thou, hero-or-moron style. Why, even in "Dynamic hedging", his first, $100-book on trading exotic options, he was already both immensely entertaining and almost unbearably infuriating.
1.2 A few of the more interesting points:
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1.2.1 Every phenomenon in the world belongs to one of the following categories:
Fragile: vulnerable to unforeseen shocks
Robust: indifferent to shocks
Antifragile: thrive on shocks, up to a point.
That's what Taleb calls the Triad.
1.2.2 Most modern structures are inherently fragile
Salaried employment: while it looks safe on the surface (predictable salary every month) it is subject to the catastrophic risk of losing one's job.
Debt-fueled economies: debt has no flexibility, so these economies can't stand even a slowdown without risking implosion (cf current situation)
Modern societies: efficiency demands are pushing the structures to the maximum, so a little sand in the cogs make the whole edifice totter.
Touristification: turning adventures (kids growing up, people visiting foreign countries) from exciting, dangerous activities into bland, Disneyfied and safe ones.
1.2.3 Ways to be antifragile include:
Stressors: it is healthy to be subject to some punctual stresses to awake the organism from complacency (e.g. irregular meal times, violent exercise or ingesting small amounts of poison)
Barbell strategy: put 90% of your eggs into something super-safe and be very risk-seeking with the other 10% (swing for the fences).
Optionality: get into situations where downside is limited but upside is unlimited (non-linearity)
Redundancy: have more than one way to have things done.
Less is more: don't add unnecessary things.
Tinkering: empiricism is better than top-down academic research
Small is beautiful: large organizations are inherently fragile, but small structures are well adapted to be nimble and profit from unexpected opportunities.
1.2.4 For small troubles, better trust nature and do nothing than bring untested methods that can have tragic unforeseen consequence
Beware of neomania: don't embrace novelty for the sake of it
Stick to time-tested methods: what has stood the test of time has proved to be robust
Don't sweat the small stuff if it can lead to tragedy: radiation used to cure acne leading to leukemia, thalidomide prescribed to reduce morning sickness leading to malformed babies.
1.2.5 An antidote to the lack of accountability seen in the powerfuls who rule us (government officials, corporate honchos, bankers)
Have them have skin in the game, i.e. to share in the downside of their decisions. Taleb quotes the 3000-year-old+ Hammurabi code, "eye for an eye, teeth for a teeth."
2 Review
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So, what's the score? As with his other books, I found myself reading every page the first 40-50 pages, then turning the pages faster and faster as the neat, amusing prose turns into Fidel Castro-style interminable ramblings, hyperboles and inaccuracies, annoying personal anecdotes, and worst of all, the silly little tales with his imaginary heroes Nero Tulip and Fat Tony (Tulip seems to be some kind of idealized version of Taleb himself). One or two hours for the first third, 40 minutes for the second and 15 minutes for the last.
And I'll spare (or maybe not) the "very technical" appendix 2 with its silly little formula he seems to be so proud of. Thanks for teaching us high-school math about convexity (Jensen inequality as if it were rocket science? Come on!)
The basic point is sound however: we sure all need a bit more antifragility in our lives.
If we only ditched what is unnecessary (going to the doctor for trivial stuff, seeking novelty for the sake of it, buying stuff we don't need), we'd have gone a long way toward being more robust.
But going beyond that is more problematic: Taleb waxed lyrical about the upside of antifragility, but he says nothing about its cost.
And seeing how he came to his idea from the world of options trading, it looks dishonest. In options trading, when you buy and option and get all the good stuff associated with it (unlimited upside, limited downside), the flipside is that it costs money everyday (time decay). Spending all your time buying options is quite a good way to the poorhouse.
As in the financial world, so in the real world, unless you're talking about "free optionality" (the people who don't have skin in the game that Taleb reviles). Maybe being a free agent beats being an office drone because one doesn't need to fear getting fired, but what about the daily stress of needing to go out and find work without any certainty to get it? That's a cost that's a bit too high for probably most people.
In conclusion, this is an imperfect, overlong and often eye-roll-inducing book (as is usual for Taleb), but it presents an intriguing and original argument for the reader to chew on.
812 of 883 people found the following review helpful.
Nassim Taleb's most important book yet
By Aaron C. Brown
I begin for readers who have not read anything else by this author, especially those who are familiar with his ideas only second-hand. His second book, Fooled by Randomness, is by far the easiest introduction to his ideas. It is relatively short and illustrates his ideas in dramatic and amusing stories. For people with technical backgrounds, the first book, Dynamic Hedging, makes the points in a much more restricted domain (managing risk of financial options) which allows more precision. The Bed of Procrustes is striking and insightful, but as it is a series of loosely connected aphorisms, the reader has to sort out the links for herself.
Taleb's third and most commercially successful book, The Black Swan, and this one (which may become his most successful), lay out his ideas in more breadth and depth. The three in the first paragraph are relatively non-controversial. They are critical mainly of people who are safe to ridicule, those who are blind to the uncertainty in the universe in fields that are ruled by randomness, such as finance. The Black Swan and Antifragile attack--in the most intemperate language--people, ideas and professions accustomed to reflexive worship. The attacks are vigorous and directed at the core beliefs that underpin large areas of modern life.
These latter two books are more difficult to read. They are long, and their complex ideas are interwoven in overlapping essays rather than dissected in textbook order. Every page contains outrageous contentions that few readers will accept in full. You can skate on the surface taking the books as pure iconoclasm, amusing and provocative but ultimately specious. They're actually valuable taken in that spirit, but they are far deeper and more important than that.
The Black Swan concentrates on the case that long-term outcomes are dominated by events that are individually highly improbable, and also that are inherently unpredictable--Black Swans. Many people have interpreted "inherently unpredictable" as "hard to predict," and set to work on techniques to predict Black Swans. That misses the point. The events only have their impact BECAUSE they were not predicted. If someone invented a Black Swan prediction system, all it would do is make different highly improbable events into the Black Swans.
A common criticism of The Black Swan is that it tears opposing ideas down without giving any positive advice about what to do. That is, if long-term outcomes are dominated by Black Swans, why do anything at all except wait around and hope the unpredictable, improbable events are good for you rather than bad? In fact, there is quite a bit of sound advice in The Black Swan (see the short review by David Aldous at [...] for the best and most balanced summary of the claims) but the advice is about avoiding predictable disaster caused by unpredictable events, and keeping yourself open to positive outcomes from improbable events.
Antifragile complements The Black Swan by celebrating systems that gain from disorder, trading away short-term predictability and micro-rationality for long-term success exploiting macro-unpredictability. It's a bold attitude, amply supported by argument and example from many fields. If anything, it is more outrageous and iconoclastic than The Black Swan. It is Taleb's most important book to date, as it closes the circle. On one level, the universe (at least as perceived by humans) is ruled by disorder, but on another level, the crucial elements are those that gain from disorder as eventually these are fitter for survival than any element, however strong, that requires order.
If you have read any of Taleb's other books, I suggest Antifragile is the best next one to read. If you have not read any, I suggest starting with either Fooled by Randomness or if you have a technical background, Dynamic Hedging; then moving on to Antifragile. However, it is certainly possible to read Antifragile with no prior preparation. Eventually, everyone should read all of his books (or all of his thinking, most of which is available free at his website). But if you have to pick only one, Antifragile is the best choice.
552 of 629 people found the following review helpful.
A big mixed bag of insights and misconceptions
By Abacus
This book has a really cool innovative style. The first appendix is "a graphical tour of the book" where Taleb graphically explains all the main concepts. It renders the nearly incomprehensible visually explicitly clear. I wish nonfiction writers would use such a graphical appendix. The second appendix focuses on really technical concepts for the quants. That's so Taleb can write the body of the book for the layperson. But, for the mathematicians he is willing to drill down in technical details.
The main point of the book is that the World is really complex and genuinely unpredictable. Black Swans (rare) events will always be Black Swans. Any efforts to forecast such events are counterproductive. But, even though we can't forecast Black Swan events we can manage our exposure to them so they don't hurt us or so we can even benefit from them (antifragility). If we simply remain long the underlying risk by attempting to model Black Swan infested variables, we will be exposed to volatility and fail (fragility).
The main underlying concepts are that the majority of causal relationships are nonlinear. They typically have both a convex section where the curve rises exponentially upward and is associated with a positive effect (antifragile) and a concave section that declines exponentially downward and has a negative effect (fragile). Think of the dose of a prescription drug. At first, as you increase the dose the health benefits improve (convexity). But, beyond a certain dose side effects and toxicity cause harm (concavity). This is shown on the first page of the "graphical tour." The trick is to reduce one's exposure to the concave part of the curve (reduce toxicity, reduce fragility) and increase exposure the the convex part (increase benefit, increase antifragility). And, this is true across all domains. The way to do that is use a barbell strategy that positively captures the optionality of the variable (being long in the convex area and short in the concave area).
Sometimes, this (convex vs concave) metaphor is reversed because a beneficial rising section of a variable's curve can be concave and a declining hurtful section can be convex. And, Taleb does use contradicting examples like that. From a geometric standpoint convexity and concavity do not tell you whether a curve is rising or declining and whether they are associated with positive or negative effect. So, you have to pay attention on a case-by-case basis.
Within this book Taleb offers interesting data insights. The more frequently you look at data, the more noise you get. Assume that you are looking at data with a yearly frequency and that your ratio of noise to signal is 50%/50%. If you look at the same data on a daily basis, the noise to signal ratio will change to 95%/5%. If you look at it on an hourly basis it becomes 99.5% to 0.5%. I don't know how he comes up with those figures (pg. 126). But, they are directionally interesting. Thus, Taleb thinks it is a waste of time to watch the stock market on an hourly or even daily basis. Taleb debunks the merit of Big Data. The more variables you look at the exponentially more spurious correlations you will get (pg. 419). This is a case of a rising convex curve with negative effect. "Modernity provides too many variables... and the spurious relationships grow much, much faster than real information, as noise is convex and information is concave" (pg. 420). Taleb does not vest much in 95% confidence intervals. What matters for him is the consequence when you fall outside the confidence interval. If a plane takes off 95% of the time on time. That's pretty good. If the plane does not crash 99% of the time, that feels like a suicidal mission (1 time out of a 100 you'll be dead). So, the probabilities in absence of their consequences are meaningless (pg 260).
Just as in The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" Taleb rejects the entire body of modern finance. In "The Black Swan" he did it by stating that the Normal distribution generates inadequately thin tails and understates the probability of rare events. Now, he adds additional arguments. And, that is that Harry Markowitz comes up with the prerequisite parameters of the Normal distribution namely the standard deviation and the mean. But, ignores an error term in each. "If these parameters need to be estimated, with an error, then the derivations need to be written differently and... we would have no Markowitz paper, no blowups, no modern finance" (pg. 447). Taleb further attacks Markowitz portfolio theory because of its reliance on static correlations between investments. Correlations change all the time, and typically go way up during downturns which eliminates Markowitz diversification benefit just when you need it. Per Taleb, Markowitz portfolio theory causes investors to overallocate to risky asset classes. He further advances that Markowitz does not use his own portfolio theory to manage his own investments. Instead, he uses a simpler but more sophisticated method similar to the one recommended by Mandelbrot and himself (Taleb) (pg. 397). On page 220 and 221, Taleb criticizes Myron Scholes and Robert Merton for getting Nobel prizes for their option formula that others discovered in more sophisticated form before them (but he does not mention who they are). On the same pages, he criticizes Mark Rubinstein for attributing techniques to professors in the 1990s that "we as practicioners used in more sophisticated forms in the 1980s".
Taleb attacks a lot more people than just Markowitz and company. Often his attacks are well grounded; sometimes they are less so. He attacks Thomas Friedman because his influential columns helped cause the Iraq war. He also criticizes his book "The World is flat" for promoting globalization without realizing that globalization increases worldwide systemic risks (pg. 386). Taleb has much intellectual contempt for Paul Krugman because he does not understand the weaknesses in the argument of "comparative advantage" that causes countries to become excessively reliant on the exports of a few commodities (pg. 449). He similarly attacks David Ricardo who came up with this original theory (pg. 212). Taleb roasts Joseph Stiglitz for stating in 2008 that Fannie Mae's probability of failure was effectively zero (Fannie Mae was taken over by the government months shortly after) and for the same Stiglitz to write in 2010 on how he had predicted the 2007-2008 financial crisis (pg. 389). Taleb defines the "Joseph Stiglitz problem"... "Mental cherry-picking, leading to contributing to the cause of a crisis while being convinced of the opposite-and thinking he predicted it" (pg. 432). That's actually Taleb's most convincing attack (the Stiglitz problem).
So, who does Taleb like? Steve Jobs. He is the one person that Taleb adulates. He refers to him at length four times throughout the book always in anthological fashion. He likes Job because he was anti-establishment, without academic credentials, autodidact, visionary, aesthete and artisan in temperament. It is easy to agree with Taleb on those counts.
Taleb is at his best when criticizing modern medicine (chapters 21 and 22). Somehow his convex-concave framework allows him to analyze well where medicine overtreats and overdiagnozes. As mentioned earlier, treatment benefits are nonlinear. It is all in the dosage. Medicine has an intervention bias. Doing something (vs nothing) is almost a requirement for defensive purposes (preventing malpractice suits). Medical interventions are also a response to powerful lucrative economic incentives. This medical mindset has created the medicalization of many normal conditions. For instance, the threshold for hypertension and high cholesterol levels have been chronically reduced so a rising portion of the population can be counted as prospective patients for related prescription drugs. Yet, the benefits of those drugs are convex to the severity of those conditions. This means that patients with near normal conditions will not be helped by those drugs and may be hurt by their long term side effects. It is only for patients with more severe conditions that such drugs may be beneficial. Although, Taleb mentions that reducing markers metrics (cholesterol, high blood pressure) does not always correspond
Taleb has much scorn for any monetary and fiscal policy interventions. Even though Taleb starts from the same place as John Maynard Keynes that the future is unpredictable. They tackle this uncertainty completely differently. Keynes propose expansive government policies (both fiscal and monetary) to shore up economies during downturns. Taleb recommends the government to do very little and for individuals and companies to deal with uncertainty by managing their exposure to it (convex vs concave framework). Taleb acknowledge he has an obsessive stance against any government debt at all (pg. 53) and wishes governments never borrowed and always balanced their Budget (pg. 286). On page 101, he lauds George Cooper's The Origin of Financial Crises who damned the Fed for all the wrong reasons and did not understand that its role is to manage inflation and unemployment rate levels. Taleb also criticizes Bernanke for his "Great Moderation" statement less than a year before the onset of the financial crisis. But, he does not give credit to Bernanke for very quickly changing course and coming up with creative expansive monetary policies to prevent the Great Recession from turning into the Great Depression II. On page 303, Taleb indicates that government interventions almost always end in disaster. He got his timing wrong. Disastrous economic shocks occur first, and government interventions to mitigate those disasters kick in second. Additionally, if governments truly never borrowed and central banks never conducted expansive monetary policies the world's capital creation over the past couple of centuries would be a small fraction of what it is today. Economic growth for centuries prior to this recent modern era was minimal (
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